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“The situation is not catastrophic.” The top ten geopolitical risks and opportunities for Ukraine in 2026. Spoiler: Ukraine itself generates some of the risks.

The prospects for ending the war in Ukraine in 2026 remain uncertain, shaped by global geopolitical dynamics from Washington to Beijing. While risks include wavering U.S. commitment, European political fragmentation, and growing Russia–China cooperation, Ukraine also faces important opportunities, particularly through deeper integration with the European Union and a stronger role in Europe’s security architecture. Commented by Martin Vokálek, Executive Director and Head of the Brussels Office of the EUROPEUM Institute.

In the Media

2. January 2026

According to Martin Vokálek, one of Ukraine’s main geopolitical opportunities in 2026 lies in accelerating EU integration. Moving accession talks into concrete policy clusters would anchor Ukraine more firmly in the EU’s institutional and economic framework, while also strengthening European support at a time of global uncertainty.

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